PermaLinkA Bit of Irony from Sara Radicati
11:38:37 AM

Update: thanks to Alan for pointing out that I was giving "credit" for 20/20 hindsight...

A fellow follower of the foibles of the Radicati Group pointed out Sara Radicati's predictions for 2005, which contains several (ahem!) gems.

3. Blogging will fade away from the corporate world and be considered a consumer tool, no longer a credible source of news

Contrast that to her predictionobserveration about last year.

5. RSS technology becomes commonplace, allowing anyone with a web site the ability to syndicate content. A flurry of RSS aggregators emerge, giving users the ability to read web content in a fashion similar to email.

Let's give credit where it is due. Dr. Radicati wasis right about last year. She's wrong, though, about this year. Consider that on the very same day that her predictions were published, CBS News, mainstream news source if ever there was one, issued its report on last year's 60 Minutes fiasco and fired a number of key employees due to deep flaws in reporting. Flaws that were quickly pointed out by bloggers, who turned out to be more credible than Dan Rather. And as for the corporate side, let's just say that Radicati appears to be in the distinct minority. Where to begin on that? The Guardian reported that the Financial Times recently did an article on corporate blogging. Google, whose finger is arguably closer to the pulse of the industry than any other company today, is said to be very interested in corporate blogging. And within the past week, General Motors' Vice Chairman Bob Lutz started FastLane Blog. RSS continues to grow, much as Dr. Radicati predicted last year, and both RSS and blogging will continue to grow in importance in 2005, as both end-user and corporate tools.

Could it be that Dr. Radicati is engaging in some wishful thinking? Could it be that she simply doesn't want blogging to gain any additional traction? Could she be looking to use her influence as an analyst to try and create a self-fulfilling prophecy? Could it be that her opinion of blogging has been affected by the fact that Radicati Group was exposed last year (see the full details on Volker Weber's Wiki, which is still the #2 hit for Radicati Group on Google) for pseudonymous posting on Ed Brill's blog in defense of Radicati-published research that many bloggers called into question, and which IBM showed to be not just deeply flawed, but also contradictory with other recent public statements by Radicati analysts. Despite Dr. Radicati's defense of the research in question, asserting that it was not (as has been suspected) sponsored by or tailored for Microsoft, I think it is fair to say that as far as credible sources of news go, Dr. Radicati's authority is a little weak.

Now, let's get to Dr. Radicati's number one prediction for 2005. It's intriguing that she placed it at number one. She must be awfully confident. Either that, or she's got a different reason. But let's not get into that. Let's just see it.

1. We expect IBM Lotus Notes/Domino to continue losing market share to MS Exchange and other players.

How credible is that? One has to wonder. I have no insider information at all, but I do watch for certain signs from IBM and from the market in general, and I suspect that the answer is "not credible at all".

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Comments :v

1. Tom01/11/2005 01:37:19 PM

I just read a big article in Time magazine about blogging. They went on and on about how blogging is going to grow to the point that the corporate media outlets will start hiring the guys who've been nailing them on things like that 60 minutes bit, and "corporatizing" the whole scene so that it loses it's grassroots feel.

While that's not a rosy picture either, it's certainly not fading into a non- credible source for news.

TrackBack From Lotus Geek01/11/2005 02:42:05 PM

Need a laugh? "The Radicati view of 2004 and 2005"

Well, we all know about the, ahem, "analysis" of Dr. Sara Radicati's merry band of opinion whores analysts over at Radicati. They were shown to be the opinion whores they truly are earlier this year in the firestorm that came from an infomercial disguised as a research report released by them, and then they decided to continue to lick the hand that feeds them with a new report recently put forth (reported in various places, and covered at Ed's blog). Well, never one to miss an opportunity to take shots and spew crap, Dr. Radicati has foisted some new tripe on the media in the guise of her "view of 2004 and 2005". Since educated readers like you don't look to anything Radicati has to say for any real value, we can instead take it for what it truly is - entertainment, kinda like the "best dressed" and "sexiest man alive" lists that come out each year....

3. Rock01/11/2005 03:04:25 PM

Well, I had the same idea you did - I blogged about this as well. I have added a trackback to my post at my site, and one here.

I think it is amusing that we reached basically the same conclusions - saying that blogging is going away is a bit of wishful thinking on her part, and that she has virtually no credibility left in the marketplace.

I guess great minds think alike - or at least are able to identify the obvious


4. Alan Bell01/12/2005 05:23:47 AM
Homepage: Http://

just to clarify, Sara Radicatti's words on 2004 were reflections rather than predictions, so not a lot of credit due there. I wonder if she did make any predictions anywhere, can't find any interesting ones on google. That Guardian article was odd, a blog about a newspaper article about an article in another newspaper about blogging about stuff. Very much a meta article.

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