So, the Yankees took two out of three from the Red Sox. My daughter and I are driving to the Bronx for the game on Saturday afternoon. It will feel a whole lot better there after this minor succees than it would have after taking only one of three, or worse yet if we had been swept.
But we're still 9 games back in the loss column, and the Sox are still a very good team this year. In fact, unless they cool down, they're on track to win 109 or 110 games this year. That will be amazing, but in recent history the 1998 Yankees and the 2001 Mariners did better than that. That says two things: It's not inevitable that the Red Sox will cool down, and if they don't cool down it's going to be incredibly difficult for the Yankees -- or anyone -- to catch them.
The Yankees and Sox play 9 more games this year. A Yankee sweep of all those games would make up the entire difference, but that's way too unlikely to happen. If it does happen, the Red Sox will surely have collapsed in an even bigger way, and this whole discussion is moot.
Realistically, the Yankees can probably only hope for 6 of those 9 games against the Sox at best; which will even out the season series but still leave the Yankees six games back in the loss column. What will it take for the Yankess to catch up with the Sox in that event? From this point on, assuming the Red Sox don't get even hotter, the Yankees will need a .750 record for the rest of the year against all other teams combined to get to 111 wins and end the season in first place.
In other words, if the Sox don't cool down, they Yankees are realistically already playing for the wildcard. A .750 percentage over more than 100 games would be a remarkable feat for any team. It's an impossible turn-around for a team that has been as inconsistent as the Yankees so far this year. Anyone who says otherwise is not looking at the statistics. And there are plenty of people saying otherwise.
On the other hand, one month of the Sox playing .500 ball with the Yankees playing around .700 will change everything.
1. Carl Tyler05/24/2007 01:36:11 PM
As soon as I hear my friend say "I think they could win it this year" they will start to cool down. It is a nice trick the Sox play on their fans, at the beginning of each season they get their fans hopes up only to dissapoint them later in the season. This year will be no different